Blog

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that President Trump has taken a “wrecking ball” to the economy and could not give a “passing grade” to its handling thus far. The financial markets would agree with her. The utter chaos and uncertainty of the past two weeks make any analysis going forward difficult at best.

Because tariffs are inflationary, long term Treasury bonds have been selling off, causing long bond yields to rise worldwide. President Trump has asked the Fed to lower rates, and the Fed refuses to do so because this would fuel inflation. As consumers recoil and households feel less wealthy due to a declining stock market and higher unemploymen...

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that President Trump has taken a “wrecking ball” to the economy and could not give a “passing grade” to its handling thus far. The financial markets would agree with her. The utter chaos and uncertainty of the past two weeks make any analysis going forward difficult at best.

Because tariffs are inflationary, long term Treasury bonds have been selling off, causing long bond yields to rise worldwide. President Trump has asked the Fed to lower rates, and the Fed refuses to do so because this would fuel inflation. As consumers recoil and households feel less wealthy due to a declining stock market and higher unemploymen...

Stock market indices have shrugged off Iran, and begun the year by moving higher. Unless Iran chooses to somehow disrupt the supply of oil to the West, it is unlikely to have much of an impact.

There has been consistent selling in the U.S. by retail investors in 2019. Flows have been drifting out from retail investors and into the hands of companies buying back their own shares. Assuming that there is no recession in 2020, and assuming that Donald Trump is re-elected, retail investors may experience FOMO, or a fear of missing out. Historically, the period of mid-October through May is a good period for stocks, but January is, on average, particularly good for small cap stocks. The relative pe...

In September, Trump tariffs were imposed on $112 billion more of Chinese imports. Trump now threatens to increase this to $550 billion. As a result, the World Trade Organization has now slashed its forecast for 2019 trade growth to 1.2% from 2.6%. The Chinese, Indian, Japanese, and U.S. economies are slowing. The European economy is slowing dramatically, and is now seen growing at zero in 2019. Germany is slowing because as Chinese companies export less to the U.S., they purchase less German machinery. This, plus the uncertainty of Brexit, has German companies nervous about investing.

In the U.S., the ISM manufacturing index, an important indicator for the health of the economy, contracted in...